Risk is, by no means, something new. In fact, risk is inherent in every facet of life and this has been the case since time began. However, perhaps more than ever before, 2020 saw the rise of risk in our collective consciousness and this is likely to have a dramatic impact on the way risk is perceived and communicated as we move forward in 2021.

A system is a set of inter-connected elements that form part of a larger, unified whole, which is typically more complex than the system’s individual elements. 

Systems exist in a broad variety of different contexts, including natural systems (the micro-organisms, insects, animals, plants, land and water that exist in a particular local environment comprising an ecosystem), technological systems (components that transform, transport, store or control materials, energy or information for particular purposes) and socio-economic systems (comprising people, institutions, culture, practices and services). 

As governments around the globe start to pivot from a primary focus on the control of health risks posed by COVID-19, there has been much debate about the broader public policy settings needed to shape the future in a post-COVID world. The likely outcome of these policy debates is uncertain. The final policy decisions will depend upon a broad variety of context-specific factors, including the political ideology and priorities of the government of the day, the general state of the economy as well as the relative health of particular sectors in the economy, the strength of opposition and interest groups, and the weight of public opinion.

Why has COVID-19 produced so much regulation?

Complex problems are typically multi-faceted, involve multiple stakeholders, and often imply deep uncertainty about the future and how to respond. It would be fair to say that the nature and level of complexity of the problems caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are beyond what the global community has witnessed before.

The distinction between risk and uncertainty.

One hundred years ago, Frank Knight – an eminent American economist – drew a distinction that is particularly pertinent for decision-making in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the distinction between risk and uncertainty.

When García Márquez wrote his memorable novel “Love in the Time of Cholera” set at the turn of the 20th century, little did he know how hauntingly relevant the themes of disease, death and the vulnerability of the ageing would be in 2020 as the world grapples with coronavirus - the latest in a series of “mega risks” that have kicked off the year.

The origins of multilateralism.

Multilateralism is an important feature of our globalised, inter-connected world. It essentially involves an alliance between multiple countries to pursue a common goal, based on agreed principles that apply to countries on a non-discriminatory and reciprocal basis.

The importance of public trust in government.

Trust is critical to any relationship, including the relationship between a government and its citizens. Indeed, the existence or absence of trust can affect how the public views a government, its agenda and its responses to societal problems. A high level of trust is likely to lead to support, affirmation and co-operation whereas low levels of trust may lead to resistance, opposition and confrontation.

Our expectations of regulation.

As a society, we expect a lot from regulation. We expect that when time, money and effort are invested by government in designing and implementing regulation, it will work. More specifically, we expect that regulation will effectively manage the risks the regulatory framework has been designed to address.

Wicked problems.

A lot has been written about so-called “wicked problems”. Despite my misgivings about this moniker because of the evil connotations it might invoke, it is useful short-hand to refer to the following…