Will COVID-19 bring multilateralism to its knees?
The origins of multilateralism
Multilateralism is an important feature of our globalised, inter-connected world. It essentially involves an alliance between multiple countries to pursue a common goal, based on agreed principles that apply to countries on a non-discriminatory and reciprocal basis.
Multilateralism is distinct from bilateralism, where two countries co-ordinate their goals and actions in accordance with preferential, “quid pro quo” agreements between themselves. It is also distinct from unilateralism, when a single country acts to pursue its own interest in a way that may lead to “beggar thy neighbour” policies.
Multilateralism has been around for a long time. However, it really took root following World War II to help avoid a repeat of the factors that precipitated WWII, including the economic hardship associated with The Great Depression. Multilateral institutions include the UN, World Bank, IMF, NATO, World Trade Organization and World Health Organization. These multilateral institutions are aimed at binding nations together, tackling global problems in a collective way, discouraging discriminatory and preferential practices that could give rise to tension and conflict, and providing a voice for smaller, less powerful nations.
Challenges to multilateralism
Multilateral approaches are constantly being challenged – more so now than ever before. This is evident from countries opting out of multilateral arrangements (such as Brexit), countries questioning the value of multilateral agreements (as is illustrated by recent trade disputes between the US and China) and non-compliance with international treaties (such as treaties for the protection of human rights and the environment).
The challenges that multilateralism has faced to date can, arguably, be boiled down to three main factors - resurgence of national sovereignty, changes in the balance of geopolitical power, and global economic forces. COVID-19 – a microscopic virus - is shaping up to be the latest challenger to multilateralism.
The link between pandemics and multilateralism
Pandemics involve large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease, over wide geographical areas. While the World Health Organization has not yet officially declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, based on information that is currently circulating about the disease, it appears to have all the hallmarks of a pandemic.
Pandemics of the past - such as the Bubonic Plague, cholera, various strains of influenza, and HIV/AIDs - have killed millions of people across the globe. Apart from mortality, pandemics can also cause significant social, economic and political disruption. For example, pandemics can provoke changes in the behaviour of individuals (resulting from fear and panic about catching the disease as well as the practical implications of quarantine measures), financial markets (linked to frozen supply chains and negative productivity) and politicians (who must contend with the various risks associated with the pandemic, while continuing to pursue pre-existing political agendas).
The changes in behaviour that pandemics can provoke collectively have the potential to lead to unilateral, isolationist responses to risk, that are geared to protecting local or national interests, rather than the global common good – thus posing a real threat to multilateralism.
Taking stock in the aftermath of COVID-19
Multilateralism has evolved over time to address global threats. Ironically, the latest global threat – COVID-19 – has the potential to undermine certain aspects of the global, multilateral system.
The reality is that multilateralism is not the only paradigm for managing international relations. Rather, a mixture of multilateralism, regionalism, bilateralism, and unilateralism is likely to prevail. Nevertheless, in the wake of COVID-19, it will be important for the global community as well as individual nations to take stock of the possible threat that pandemics pose to the multilateral order and, on this basis, decide how best to move forward.
